Carrier fraud
Cargo Theft and Carrier Fraud in 2025: What the Data Shows
By The Draylo Team · July 10, 2026
The short answer
Cargo-theft losses reached an estimated $725 million in 2025, a 60% jump over 2024, according to Verisk CargoNet — even though the total number of incidents was essentially flat (3,594 vs. 3,607). The losses surged because the average theft got bigger and the tactics shifted from stealing trucks to stealing identities: fraud groups now impersonate legitimate carriers and misdirect shipments through double-brokering, sidestepping the usual controls. The single most-cited defense is verifying the carrier against the federal record — including that a certificate of insurance can itself be fake.
The short answer
In 2025, estimated U.S. and Canadian cargo-theft losses surged to nearly $725 million — a 60% increase over 2024 — according to Verisk CargoNet, the leading cargo-theft data provider. What makes that number striking is that the number of incidents barely moved: CargoNet recorded 3,594 supply-chain crime events in 2025, essentially unchanged from 3,607 the year before. Losses jumped not because thefts got more frequent, but because each one got bigger and more sophisticated.
The average value per theft rose to $273,990, up about 36% from the prior year. And the mechanism shifted: fraud has moved from physically stealing a trailer to stealing a carrier's identity — impersonating a legitimate carrier and quietly re-routing the freight. That's why verifying who you're actually dealing with, against the federal record, is now the front line.
Losses surged, but incidents stayed flat
The headline figures from CargoNet's 2025 report (published January 2026): 3,594 supply-chain crime events across the U.S. and Canada, versus 3,607 in 2024 — flat overall volume. But confirmed cargo-theft incidents specifically rose sharply, up 18% year over year, from 2,243 to 2,646. And estimated losses climbed to roughly $725 million, a 60% increase.
Put those together and the story is clear: fewer random grabs, more high-value, targeted, deception-driven hits. Trade press summarized it as "cargo theft activity flat, losses surged." For a broker, the takeaway isn't that theft is rarer — it's that when it happens, it's engineered and expensive.
The tactics moved from the truck to the identity
CargoNet's own forecast names the shift directly: "Theft by deception groups are anticipated to increase their focus on misdirecting shipments tendered to legitimate carriers, sidestepping compliance controls that have traditionally centered on the tendering process itself." In plain terms: the criminal doesn't break into a yard — they pose as a carrier you trust and get the load handed to them.
A related tactic is the "chameleon" carrier. CargoNet notes that "many complex cargo theft schemes rely on acquiring existing motor carriers with strong load histories" — buying or hijacking a clean MC number so the fraudulent operation looks established. This is exactly why a carrier that looks legitimate on paper isn't automatically safe: the paper may belong to someone else.
What the FMCSA itself tells brokers to check
The FMCSA's public guidance on broker and carrier fraud is blunt about the mechanics and the defenses. It defines the core fraud this way: "Fraud and identity theft occurs when entities use another motor carrier's assigned USDOT number, when not authorized to do so, or when someone acts as a broker and is not registered with FMCSA."
On documents, the FMCSA is explicit: "Document examination is critical. Even insurance certificates can be fraudulent." A certificate of insurance that looks professional proves nothing on its own — a scam carrier can send a polished COI showing high coverage that doesn't exist. That's why coverage should be verified against the insurer or the federal filing, not accepted at face value.
And on contact details, the FMCSA points to an out-of-band check via SAFER: "You can confirm phone numbers of brokers and carriers using SAFER at safer.fmcsa.dot.gov. If the number you were given by the carrier/broker does not match the number posted, call the number posted in SAFER." A mismatch between the contact on the offer and the federal record is one of the clearest fraud signals there is.
What this means for how you vet
The data points to a specific conclusion: in 2025-era freight fraud, the document and the offer are the attack surface. The defenses that actually work are the ones that check reality against the federal source of truth and reach the real carrier independently.
- ›Verify the USDOT/MC number against the live FMCSA record — active authority, allowed to operate, not out of service (free check, no signup)
- ›Treat a clean-looking carrier with fresh or mismatched details as a chameleon-carrier risk until confirmed
- ›Don't trust a COI at face value — even the FMCSA warns certificates can be forged; verify coverage independently
- ›Confirm the contact out-of-band: check the phone/email against the FMCSA record, and reach the carrier through the registered channel
- ›Keep a dated record of what you checked — the same record that defends you in a negligent-selection claim
Frequently asked questions
How much did cargo theft cost in 2025?
Estimated cargo-theft losses reached nearly $725 million in the U.S. and Canada in 2025, a 60% increase over 2024, according to Verisk CargoNet. Losses surged even though the total number of incidents (3,594) was essentially unchanged from 2024, because the average value per theft rose to about $273,990.
Why did cargo-theft losses rise if incidents stayed flat?
Because the thefts got bigger and more targeted. Overall crime events were flat year over year, but confirmed cargo theft rose 18% and the average value per theft climbed about 36%. Fraud groups shifted toward high-value, deception-based schemes — impersonating legitimate carriers and misdirecting shipments — rather than opportunistic grabs.
What is a chameleon carrier?
A chameleon carrier is a fraudulent operation that takes over an existing motor carrier's identity — often by acquiring an MC number with a strong load history — so it looks established and legitimate. CargoNet reports that many complex theft schemes rely on acquiring existing carriers with clean histories, which is why a carrier that looks fine on paper can still be a fraud.
Can a certificate of insurance be fake?
Yes. The FMCSA explicitly warns that "even insurance certificates can be fraudulent." A scam carrier can send a professional-looking COI showing coverage that doesn't exist, so coverage should be verified against the insurer or the carrier's federal insurance filing rather than accepted at face value.
How do I verify a carrier's phone number?
The FMCSA recommends confirming phone numbers through SAFER at safer.fmcsa.dot.gov. If the number you were given doesn't match the number posted for the company, call the posted number instead. A mismatch between the contact on a load offer and the federal record is a strong fraud signal.
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